The International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) projects a modest recovery in global wine production for 2025, estimating output between 228 and 235 million hectolitres. This represents about a 3% increase compared with the exceptionally low 2024 harvest, yet it remains roughly 7% below the five-year average. The forecast reflects persistent volatility in yields across producing regions, influenced by climatic variability, water constraints and differing local conditions that continue to shape global supply.
At the top of the production ranking, Italy remains the world’s largest wine producer, with an estimated 47.3 million hectolitres for the year. France follows with 35.9 million hectolitres and Spain with 29.4 million. The United States occupies the fourth position in the global scale. Australia, after a decline in 2024, has rebounded and recovered the fifth place among major wine producers, illustrating how year-to-year climatic and seasonal differences can quickly alter national standings.
Argentina holds the sixth spot globally and is the largest wine producer in South America. The OIV reports Argentina’s 2025 production at approximately 10.7 million hectolitres, a volume similar to 2024 but slightly below the five-year average for the country. While this output maintains Argentina’s leadership in the continent, it also comes in a context of sectoral challenges that are affecting profitability and structural indicators across the supply chain.
A prominent concern highlighted by the OIV is the accumulation of wine stocks and the resulting pressure on primary producers’ income. An excess of supply in several markets has translated into falling real prices for grapes, with current levels among the lowest seen in the last decade. These price dynamics are contributing to a gradual reduction in vineyard area in some regions, as marginal producers exit or reassign land to other uses. Local organizations such as Fundacion Mediterranea have pointed to the knock-on effect on domestic prices and the financial stress experienced by growers.
Climate-related factors appear central to recent production declines in parts of South America. The OIV notes that water scarcity and increased climatic variability are likely explanations for underperformance in certain regions. Chile, a significant wine exporter and a close neighbour to Argentina, has been particularly affected: production there fell by around 10% in the latest accounting, reducing output to approximately 8.4 million hectolitres. That figure amounts to some 26% less than Chile’s five-year average, and the country is experiencing its fourth consecutive year of decline. These trends underscore how drought, temperature swings and other environmental stresses are reshaping both short-term harvests and longer-term planning decisions.
By contrast, some Southern Hemisphere producers have posted recoveries or growth. South Africa expanded production by around 16% year-on-year, reaching roughly 8.8 million hectolitres in 2025. Australia’s rebound to fifth place similarly signals a return to stronger output after the previous year’s drop. These differing trajectories reflect the heterogeneity of climatic events across hemispheres and the offsetting nature of seasons, which help stabilize global volumes to an extent even as individual countries see pronounced swings.
Brazil represents a noteworthy development for Argentine wine exporters and for the region more generally. Although Brazil’s production volume remains modest relative to major global players, it registered a significant increase of about 38% to reach some 2.9 million hectolitres. More important for market prospects is the marked expansion of Brazil’s domestic wine market: consumer habits are shifting, with new cohorts adopting wine consumption and substituting traditional beverages such as beer in certain segments. This growing domestic demand creates an attractive opportunity for Argentine producers seeking export markets close to home.
Argentine wineries have already been active in tapping Brazil’s growth. Since 2021, some groups from Argentina have positioned themselves as leading exporters to Brazil, with exports that in some months double those of the second-largest Argentine exporter in terms of FOB values. This commercial orientation has been supported by geographic proximity, established trade links and targeted marketing that addresses Brazil’s evolving consumer preferences.
The overall picture for the wine sector is therefore mixed. On one hand, the modest global production increase projected for 2025 provides some relief after a particularly weak 2024. On the other hand, structural challenges remain: oversupply in certain segments, inventories carried by merchants and producers, depressed grape prices, and the economic pressure on small or marginal growers. Climate stresses – notably water shortages and greater year-to-year variability – continue to influence yields, with some producing countries seeing multi-year declines.
For producers and policymakers, these conditions imply several priorities. Managing stocks and aligning production with expected demand will be crucial to prevent further price deterioration. Investment in water-efficient viticultural practices, improved irrigation management, and longer-term adaptation strategies can help mitigate the impacts of climatic variability. Diversifying market channels and focusing on nascent domestic markets in neighboring countries, such as Brazil, can provide outlets for surplus production and improve value capture for exporters. Finally, measures to support smaller growers facing persistent low prices could prevent premature vineyard abandonment and preserve rural livelihoods and the diversity of the sector.
In summary, the OIV’s 2025 outlook describes a wine sector in modest recovery yet still below recent averages, with pronounced regional differences driven by climate, market dynamics and structural forces. Italy, France and Spain remain the largest producers; the United States and Australia occupy leading positions; Argentina continues to lead South America despite slightly lower output relative to its five-year mean; Chile is experiencing a multi-year downturn; South Africa shows growth; and Brazil’s expanding domestic market presents a strategic opportunity for Argentine exporters. The combination of market oversupply, low grape prices and environmental pressures highlights the need for coordinated responses across production, marketing and policy to stabilize the sector and support long-term sustainability.
